Abstract
The software industry is changing as a result of the rising influence both of packaged and of Free/Libre/Open Source Software (FLOSS), but the change trajectory of the industry is still not well understood. This paper aims to contribute to clarifying software industry evolution through a longitudinal study, using Industry Change Trajectory Theory to explain and predict the evolution of the Content Management Systems (CMS) segment and the extent to which its results can be generalized to the overall software industry. Our data analysis shows that CMS players are experiencing a modification of their segments’ change trajectory. While McGahan in 2004 recognized that the software industry was in a creative change trajectory, it has subsequently faced strong competition on its core assets, (i.e. applications) and the empirical results of our longitudinal study from 2002 to 2007 show the CMS segment is now in a radical change trajectory, due to the rapid obsolescence of its core activities. Changes affecting the segment include the continuous development of CMS applications, the faster extension of functions for FLOSS CMS than for packaged CMS, the diffusion of the practice of providing services as well as delivering of software solutions.