Abstract
In this paper we analyse the structure of a fast moving consumer good (FMCG) category for the Italian market: chocolate and confectionary. We focus on appraising the degree of ‘sharing’ of customers between brands of different market share and we draw conclusions on the competing dynamics within the analysed market. Particularly, we assess the effects of a typical consumer behaviour, i.e. ‘polygamous’ loyalty (or repertoire buying) in determining: (i) how brands will compete in this typical FMCG category; and (ii) the existence of specific sub-grouping of brands within the category. We performed a Duplication of Purchase analysis and found that in this category consumers are indeed ‘polygamous’, i.e. they allocate their purchases (and loyalty) across more than one brand in a given time. As a consequence of this trend, the percentage of a brand’s customer base that has purchased also other brands is largely determined by that brand’s market share. This implies that brands with low market share ‘share’ a large proportion of their customers with market leaders. The analysis also allowed observing some systematic deviations from this pattern, i.e. some clear market partitions or sub-grouping of brands, which represent very clear sub-categories and different competing dynamics for premium and private label brands. These partitions largely reflect our research hypotheses drawn upon the current state of a mature FMCG market such as confectionary, in a time of economic distress. We conclude discussing two sets of implications: the implications on the insights offered by this analysis on the nature and structure of mature FMCGs markets in Italy; and the possibility to expand this analysis using comprehensive theories of buying behaviour such as the Dirichlet model, which could provide rich theoretical benchmarks relevant to brand managers.